A leading researcher at Coinbase has identified early signs of a prolonged crypto bear market, raising concerns among investors and market participants.
DAVID DUONG, the Global Head of Research at Coinbase, highlighted in a recent analysis that Bitcoin (BTC) and the Coinbase 50 Index (COIN50) have both fallen below their 200-day moving averages (MA), a key technical indicator often associated with bearish trends. The COIN50 Index tracks the performance of the 50 largest digital assets by market capitalization.
“As Bitcoin’s role as a ‘store of value’ continues to grow, we believe a comprehensive evaluation of the crypto market’s aggregate activity will be essential to defining bull and bear markets for the asset class. This is particularly relevant as we observe increasingly diverse behavior across its expanding sectors,” stated DUONG.
He further noted, “Both BTC and the COIN50 index have recently broken below their respective 200-day MAs, signaling potential long-term bearish trends. This aligns with the decline in the total crypto market capitalization and reduced venture capital funding, which are hallmarks of an emerging crypto winter.”
Despite the bearish outlook, DUONG suggested that a bullish reversal could begin to take shape between July and September 2025. “We recommend adopting a defensive stance on risk for now. However, we anticipate that crypto prices may find their floor by mid-to-late Q2 2025, setting the stage for a more favorable Q3,” he added.
This analysis comes at a critical time for the crypto market, as investors closely monitor macroeconomic factors and regulatory developments that could influence asset prices.
Source: Coinbase Research